Quarterbacks
Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans SaintsI’m starting my picks off with a simple one. Brees is a unanimous top 3 QB on everybody’s rankings, usually slotted behind Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers. All three are incredible quarterbacks that are going in the first two rounds, so how can any be overrated? In truth, I wouldn’t take Brees much earlier he’s being taken in drafts (early second round), but the difference in my thinking is his value relative to the other quarterbacks on the board. Here's where I get bold: I would take Drew Brees before Manning or Rodgers. Now, before you go into CapsLock mode, scream "Blasphemy!" at the top of your lungs, and/or stop reading this piece altogether, hear me out. Brees has been in the top two overall fantasy leaders for the past three years. Manning is 38 years old, and while I think the fantasy community has learned to not bet against the forehead, I think Brees and Rodgers are the safer picks and they aren't being drafted as such.
ADP: 13.0 (3rd QB)
Confidence: 10/10
SoundtrackAndrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis ColtsLuck is typically ranked among the second tier of quarterbacks that I mentioned, but Matthew Stafford and Cam Newton usually are usually ranked ahead of him. Though the offensive line is troubling, Luck is a winner. This doesn’t always transfer to fantasy stardom, but last year it did for Andrew. He scored the fifth most fantasy points in 2013 – fourth most among QBs – and he did it in just his second season. With the addition of Hakeem Nicks (hint, hint) to a receiving corps already manned by the electric T.Y. Hilton and reliable veteran Reggie Wayne, he has plenty of throwing options. Cam Newton on the other hand has zero returning receivers, and is coming off of an ankle injury. Matthew Stafford’s prolific throwing offense is now gone with Jim Caldwell and Joe Lombardi taking over at head coach and offensive coordinator, respectively. Though I expect the quality of his passes to increase with the lower quantity, Luck is the better IRL quarterback and he has shown that he can produce without a Megatron on his team. I expect big things from Luck this year, and I didn’t even use a pun on his name to get my point across.
ADP: 38.5 (6th QB)
Confidence: 8/10
SoundtrackJay Cutler, QB, Chicago BearsYou either love him or you hate him. If you’re not a Bears fan, you probably hate him. Heck, in my experience with the Church of Ditka you probably still hate Jay if you’re a Bears fan. Regardless of your personal opinions, the guy is ready for a breakout year. Even if you don’t trust his cannon arm, sneaky quick feet, or impressive ability to throw on the run, it’s hard not to trust the offense. He has three targets over 6’3” in Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, and Martellus “Black Unicorn” Bennett – the first two being top ten fantasy receivers. On top of that, they have a top five fantasy RB in Matt Forte, arguably the best receiving back in the league. That’s a great offense. Fun stat that I’ve heard being tossed around: if you combine Cutler and Josh McCown’s 2013 stats they add up to the third highest-scoring fantasy QB. Jay won’t be a top 3 QB, but he can easily get you a top ten finish if he stays healthy. In his second year under head coach and QB-guru Mark Trestman, expect Cutler to once again show improvement.
ADP: 108.2 (15th QB)
Confidence: 6/10
Soundtrack Running Backs
Montee Ball, RB, Denver BroncosFumble and blocking issues lead to a lack of carries last year for the Broncos rookie. Knowshon Moreno, a back who many thought would never live up to his hype, took those carries and ran for the 5th most fantasy points among running backs. This can be mostly attributed to Peyton Manning's record-setting passing offense, and less to do with Moreno's skill. Now in his second year, Ball is by all accounts a more talented runner than former teammate Moreno. The big, bruising back proved to be a touchdown machine at Wisconsin and has little competition for the starting job. Look for his collegiate success to be refound this year in Denver as Peyton Manning forces defenses to focus on the passing game and open up holes for Ball.
ADP: 28.6 (13th RB)
Confidence: 9/10
SoundtrackGiovani Bernard, RB, Cincinnati BengalsGio Bernard is electrifying. He has unreal quickness that's incredibly fun to watch, which is why it was so frustrating that someone as mediocre as BenJarvus Green-Ellis grabbed 220 carries to Bernard’s 170. Bernard took his carries for 4.1 yards per carry and also had 514 receiving yards, while the Law Firm averaged just 3.4 yards per attempt and caught just four passes all season. I could continue to show how much better Bernard is than BJGE, but there’s really no need. He is pretty much done, though the threat of a RB timeshare is not gone. Rookie Jeremy Hill will compete for carries, and probably vulture some touchdowns from Gio, but I don’t think it will be enough to limit Bernard’s production. I’m a big believer in taking talent over situation, and I think Gio has more talent than fellow second year backs Le’Veon Bell and Zac Stacy, though they may be more solidified as RB#1 in their offenses. Bottom line: Gio Bernard has a very particular set of skills, skills that make him a nightmare for your fantasy opponents.
ADP: 30.8 (14th RB)
Confidence: 8/10
SoundtrackAndre Ellington, RB, Arizona CardinalsI simply can’t believe Ellington is ranked as low as he is. Nearly every “fantasy expert” I have read lists Dre as a player they love for the upcoming fantasy season, yet he continues to be drafted as low as 20th among running backs. They must be specifically saving room for me on the bandwagon, because this one is just too easy. Dre is incredibly quick and lead the league in yards per carry last year while the now-retired Rashard Mendenhall took 200 carries from his production. Ugh. Literally the only thing holding Ellington back is his limited usage by coach Bruce Arians. Underwhelming backup running backs Jonathan Dwyer and Stephan Taylor will frustrate by taking too many carries from Ellington, but the question is how many? The talent is there, and if Ellington gets anywhere near 200 carries this season you’ll profit big time. In my dreams, Ellington becomes the first running back with 3000 yards from scrimmage in a single season, leading to the apt nicknames “Andre 3000” and “Three Stacks”. Then he and the real Andre 3000 release an album titled Dre 2 Dre, spawning a tour and they bring me with them because I predicted the whole thing. That’s possible, right? Who am I kidding...of course that’s possible! This is gonna be big folks.
ADP: 50.6 (20th RB)
Confidence: 8/10
SoundtrackLamar Miller, RB, Miami DolphinsI've already detailed the fact that I don't believe Knowshon Moreno is anything special, and he's the only competition that Lamar Miller has to worry about. I understand that Miller didn't exactly break out in his second season with the Dolphins, but he's still just 23 years old and possesses some next-level speed. The Dolphins offensive line didn't help him much either in 2013, and though it is a big question mark again this season, there's reason to believe it can at least improve from last year. The bottom line is that Lamar is the most talented RB on the Dolphins, and he's being drafted outside the top 30. He may not have an incredible year, but the value is there as a high upside RB3/RB4. Plus, we know how much the Genius fam loves dudes named "Lamar" and "Miller".
ADP: 110.7 (38th RB)
Confidence: 5/10
Soundtrack Wide Receivers
Jeremy Maclin, WR, Philadelphia EaglesRemember this guy? Maclin was out all of last year after tearing his ACL during training camp. The injury spelled trouble for The Eagles offense, but Chip Kelly wasn't going to let anything slow down his high-octane offense. Shady McCoy ran all over defenses, Nick Foles emerged as a fantasy starter, and a revitalized DeSean Jackson lit up opposing defenses. With DJax now in Washington, Maclin looks to return to WR1 in Philly - prime real estate for a talented receiver. If Maclin - possibly related to FBI agent Bert Macklin? - stays healthy, your return on investment should be very high.
ADP: 75.9 (27th WR)
Confidence: 7/10
SoundtrackGolden Tate, WR, Detroit LionsBrandon Pettigrew, Nate Burleson, and Tony Scheffler. Those are the names of all Detroit WR/TE's not named Calvin Johnson who had over 500 receiving yards in at least one of the past four seasons. Kris Durham was the team's second leading wideout last year with 490 receiving yards. Yikes. It's clear that Megatron has been a one-man wrecking crew at the position, but it's also apparent that the Lions haven't surrounded him with many other competent receivers. With Golden Tate coming over from Seattle, that's about to change. The Super Bowl champion Seahawks were clearly a team built on defense and the run game, but when Russell Wilson did throw it, Tate was his number one target. Expect Tate to put up solid numbers once again with gunslinger Matthew Stafford finally having a solid second option. Plus, his name is Golden Tate which really should count for fantasy bonus points amirite?
ADP: 82.3 (31st WR)
Confidence: 6/10
SoundtrackHakeem Nicks, WR, Indianapolis ColtsHakeem Nicks is my fantasy kryptonite. Hakeem Nicks is that crazy ex-girlfriend that you know is bad for you, but you had a few good times back in the day so you keep toying with the idea of going back. Hakeem Nicks is that friend who never really gets things right, but he means well so you keep hanging out with him. Hakeem Nicks is…ok you get the point. I had Hakeem back in his prime, so each year I sit back and reminisce on the glory days. What can I say? I’m a sap for nostalgia. Nicks has always had talent, he has just had trouble lining that talent up with health and the ups/downs of the Eli Manning roller coaster. This year he has Andrew Luck chucking the leather at him, so that’s a plus. There’s also the fact that I’m not too excited about the other Indy receivers. T.Y. Hilton is awesome, but he’s a boom or bust player who will get you 25 points one game and then 2 the next week. Reggie Wayne is more consistent, but he’s like 64 years old and tore his ACL last year. He’s gotta fall off at some point right? Nicks has WR2 upside at WR4 price, so I’m going to roll the dice.
ADP: 122.3 (46th WR)
Confidence: 5/10
SoundtrackBrandin Cooks, WR, New Orleans SaintsI don’t usually believe in rookie wide receivers. They rarely produce successful fantasy seasons, so I’ve almost always watched the hype train get rolling on these rookie wideouts and sat back as they were drafted far too early in my drafts. Last year, however, I decided to go against my usual strategy and take Tavon Austin as my third wide receiver. You would’ve thought I learned my lesson right? Well I didn’t. I really like Brandin Cooks this year. The difference between Cooks and 2013 Tavon Austin is that Tavon was hyped up much more. Everybody was touting this dude, so he was being drafted around the 8th round. Cooks, on the other hand, typically isn't going until rounds 12-13. So he has value, but he’s also blazing fast and currently tearing up training camp. Veteran Marques Colston is firmly entrenched as WR1, but otherwise the WR depth chart is just waiting for Cooks to step in. Most importantly, he has Drew Brees throwing the him the football, which you know - if you’ve been paying attention - is a good thing. (Insert some kind of “Brandin is cooking up a fantasy championship” pun at the end here so that I can use this Lil B gif.)
ADP: 122.0 (45th WR)
Confidence: 5/10
SoundtrackSo that's it for my 2014 Fantasy Football Watch List. Let me know what you think in the comments below and feel free to message me if you want to talk sports. If you're interested, this is what my team looks like this year (10 team league).
